Democratic strategist Doug Forand emails over an analysis of the recent poll done in the Maltese / Addabo / Baldeo matchup that takes some of the wind out of republican crowing regarding the state of that contest. As a reminder, in an unreleased poll, the Maltese campaign released numbers for the three-way matchup in SD-15 that showed the Senator at 45%, Democratic candidate Joe Addabbo at 18%, independent Albert Baldeo at 3%, and 35% undecided.

Before examining the results of the poll, it is important to look at the demographic nature of the sample used, as it appears likely to skew the results to be more favorable for Senator Maltese. Most notably, according to the polling memo, 30% of the respondents are registered Republicans, while information from the New York State Board of Elections shows that the actual Republican enrollment within the district is just under 22% - an over-representation of the GOP base by 36%. Even if we screen out unlikely voters, only looking at new registrants and voters who have a history indicating that they are likely to vote in a presidential election, the GOP enrollment only climbs to 22.5%. The sample also under-represents women, who represent only 52% of the respondents when the actual percentage of likely women voters, based on enrollment and voter history, is over 55%.

However, even if we assume the sample produces results that are valid within the margin of error (4.9%), the data presented is not favorable for Senator Maltese. Reflecting his 20 years in office, Senator Maltese is very well-known within the district, with substantive name recognition of 87% and he is generally held in good regard. Despite this and after two decades of representing this constituency, Maltese is only supported by 45% of the voters in the initial trial heat against Councilman Addabbo, which is a strong indicator that the voters in this district want change. This also explains his near-loss in the 2006 elections – people know him and don’t dislike him, but they are not inclined to support his re-election bid.

More:

Further, with his high-level of name recognition, there are virtually no new voters for Maltese to reach to credibly get his numbers over 50% (and among new registrants, Democrats are outpacing Republicans by an almost 4-1 margin). Joe Addabbo is unknown to 32% of the voters and 27% do not have an opinion of him, giving him a much broader base of potential supporters among voters who know Senator Maltese but do not support his re-election.

Among other arguments the authors make to bolster the case for Maltese’s re-election, they contend that John McCain will help carry Sen. Maltese over the finish line, which is not supported by the data. McCain’s popularity (54% favorable) and his electoral strength (42%) may be better than the GOP expected, but they are hardly the kinds of numbers that you want to bank a down-ballot candidacy on. McCain’s electoral numbers are actually similar to what George Bush received in the 2004 election in this district.

There are several take-aways here, but this is the most important one: Maltese is polling, once you adjust for sample error, well below the magic 50% re-elect number that traditionally signals an endangered incumbent. We're already seeing massive new Democratic enrollment edges in the district - just as we are in the rest of the state and the nation at large - which will further skew the turnout models, especially in a district heavy with new minority voters.

And finally,

One final point – in their analysis, the authors argue that based on these numbers, “We can expect the Democrats to go negative.” In fact, with Senator Maltese underperforming this badly in a district that he has represented for 20 years, it is more likely that the GOP goes negative because they cannot win this race with positive messaging – the voters who might respond to this (i.e. voters who don’t know Senator Maltese) simply do not exist. This is more likely an attempt by the GOP to inoculate themselves from the anticipated voter backlash resulting from a typical GOP slash-and-burn campaign. As we saw in the Aubertine special election and as we see on a national level, the Republicans are increasingly resorting to starkly negative campaigns to try to counter the existing negative perception of the Republican Party.

The overall strategic landscape for republicans in November is little short of catastrophic; it's a change election, one in which twenty-year incumbents probably aren't going to fare all that well generically, especially not when the overall mood of the electorate is one of anxiety. That doesn't even require a negative campaign, though it's of course comic that any republican would declare himself unnerved by the prospect of one.

It only requires telling the truth. And the truth is that Maltese stands in the way of the change New Yorkers want.

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