How Obama punked Hillary

One aspect of the likely nomination of Hillary Clinton to be Secretary of State has been completely overlooked: at a stroke, it removes Barack Obama's only serious, high-powered opposition within the party.

Consider the murmurings during late summer and early fall: that Hillary, if Obama didn't make it, or even if he did, could engage in another run for the top job next time around. That's not going to happen now. By offering her the senior cabinet office, Obama has effectively neutralized his main intra-party rival.

Or consider the question of money. As a Senator, Hillary could raise money to pay off her 2008 campaign debt; as a cabinet officer, she can't.

Then, look at the fate of Secretaries of State going back to Reagan: they get replaced after a single term. Bill Clinton, for example, replaced Warren Christopher with Madeline Albright.

If Hillary takes the job, she's going to wake up one morning in 2013 with no Senate seat, no power base, a big pile of debt, no Secretaryship, in short, nothing at all. Her big issue of healthcare reform, which she could have shaped from the Senate? Somebody else is going to take care of that.

You have to wonder if that's the point.

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Dan Jacoby's picture

Even more

Look at the Secretaries of State for the past four two-term Presidents. In each case, the second-term appointment was the far more effective one -- Rice vs. Powell (Bush), Albright vs. Christopher (Clinton), Baker vs. Haig/Schultz (Reagan), and Kissinger vs. Rogers (Nixon/Ford).

But...

Hillary Clinton is a unique force in American politics. She has the ability to defy history and create her own precedents. While recent history might suggest that she is doomed to the ash heap of failed presidential contenders, she just doesn't fit the mold -- for anything.

In addition, Clinton made a play to shape healthcare reform in the Senate and was rebuffed; the seniority system there proved too much even for her (so did Ted Kennedy). She would have been relegated to standing behind Kennedy at press conferences, which is not her style. As Secretary of State, she will be holding her own press events (and you can bet she demanded that as a condition of accepting the post), she will be on television even more prominently than Condi Rice has been, and she will be able to take credit for any major developments on the world stage -- which, after eight years of Bush, can only serve to make her look good.

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Dan Jacoby's picture

Hillary can't be Secretary of State (theoretically)

She is constitutionally prohibited.

Article I, Section 6, clause 2 states: "No Senator or Representative shall, during the Time for which he was elected, be appointed to any civil Office under the Authority of the United States, which shall have been created, or the Emoluments whereof shall have been encreased during such time; and no Person holding any Office under the United States, shall be a Member of either House during his Continuance in Office." Since the salary of top-level cabinet members was raised in 2007, during her current term of office, she is prohibited from taking the job.

But...

Don't think this situation hasn't arisen before. In the past, Congress simply lowered the salary for whatever position was being filled back to its older level, so that there was (sort of) no increase in "Emoluments" to run afoul of the constitution. Chances are, that's what they'll do for Hillary.

The salary level? It's now $191,300, about $5,000 over what it was just a couple of years ago, and over $25,000 more than she gets as a Senator. Not that it matters (because she's probably still making a lot more from sales of her books), but she can afford to give up the five grand.

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Grant's picture

Or...

...perhaps Obama is planning on doing something like, oh, taking Mid-East Peace seriously instead of just taking a token run at it at some point during his term like some other presidents. And Hillary decided the chance at having her name on THAT if they pull it off was worth losing the chance to have her name on Healthcare Reform. Just maybe.

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HooDia's picture

It is not "just

It is not "just maybe".
Read. I don't think this aspect of Hillary's appointment (that it neutralizes Obama's main party opposition) has been overlooked at all. In fact, it's been prominently highlighted in most news analyses since the State appointment was first speculated.

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Mark G.'s picture

contains risks for both people

I don't think this aspect of Hillary's appointment (that it neutralizes Obama's main party opposition) has been overlooked at all. In fact, it's been prominently highlighted in most news analyses since the State appointment was first speculated.

But consider this: While Hillary now exposes herself to the possibility of getting fired, does anybody really believe that Obama would be able to do so without a huge cost? Picture Obama firing Hillary Clinton. Unless he had a REALLY good reason to do so, he risks a huge backlash among Hillary supporters and independents. Warren Christopher? Who cared about him? Firing Hillary is a far bigger deal - and I'd go so far as to say that she's practically unfireable. The risk is mostly on Obama's side.

Bush faced the same problem with Powell - Powell wasn't on board with Cheney and the neo-cons, but he was too popular to fire. Instead, Bush merely sidelined him. That's what Obama is more likely to do with Hillary if he ends up disagreeing with her views. He'd force Hillary to consider quitting on her own, or stay on in a weakened position. The danger, however, is that Hillary (together with Bill) has far more power in the party base than Powell had in his, and could easily stir up her own support if she was viewed as the wronged party.

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Andy S's picture

Looking ahead to 2016

I believe that Sen. Clinton and then Sen. Obama spoke about having her on the ticket. She had a few options; To be on the ticket or have what ever she wanted, as long as you campaign for him. Hillary is a strong, capable leader and She was not about to play second fiddle, but was also not willing to leave the fight.

Their plan was for Hillary's camp to say "she was never vetted" because Obama could take the hit and she wouldn't have to say no, which would have been detrimental to Obama in the general election. Both discussed the problem that "not asking/vetting" would pose in regards to the 18 million that voted for her... hence the many events Hillary did for Obama, this would shore up any doubt of Obama for her supporters.

Since then, Hillary has been offered a special post on Health Care in the Senate and there is speculation of her becoming the next Sec. of State. To Become the head of the Dept. of state is a huge step for anyone, but will most certainly be beneficial to Hillary's political aspirations. What was one thing that she was hit for during the campaign? Lack of foreign policy experience. If she is Secretary of State for 4 to 8 years, and with her experience after being Secretary of State, she will be almost unstoppable in 2016.

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Gothanonymous Reader's picture

"Backlash among Hillary supporters and independents"???

Yeah, because they so overwhelmingly backed her during the election that they swung the Democratic nomination and the presidency her way. Oh, wait a minute...

The punditocracy & the so-called PUMAs claimed throughout the election that HRC's alleged "base" would not support Obama. "OMG, she has such a following!" "Look at her following!" they would say. PUHLEASE! Unfortunately for HRC, that flawed logic did not pan out in the actual election, as, low and behold, her alleged base did in fact support HIM...overwhelmingly.

And, I can't recall any poll that ever showed a significant number of Independents supporting HRC. Hell, a majority of Democrats didn't even support her. At the end of the primaries, who made up HRC's "base"? A few bitter alleged women on the Internet who successfully punked McCain into believing that there were a bunch of them that would swing the election his way? Because, as we know, that didn't happen. For pete's sake, the black guy won Indiana! It seems to me that the actual results of the election showed that Obama didn't lose too many demographics to McCain & I doubt in four years that those voters will go astray unless Obama totally screws up the agenda & governs like a Republican. And firing HRC, should he actually bring her on board, won't change that.

In fact, Obama should NEVER have offered that unqualified, vitriolic, polarizing drama queen a position in his cabinet with her slimy, embarassment of a husband & he will get everything he deserves from bringing her on board - including whatever minor, momentary backlash that may come when he ultimately has to fire the both of them!

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mole333's picture

YIKES!!!

Well...

Hillary IS qualified, even if you may disagree with her.

Her husband presided over one of the most stable, prosperous periods of American history, inspired more Americans than any other Democrat between Kennedy and Obama, brought us the only budget surplus in recent history, outmanoeuvred Gingrich, recognized the danger of al-Qaeda and attacked them, and basically made me proud to be an American. Traveling overseas people always reacted positively to Clinton (as opposed to Bush, who I found universally despised). Whatever his personal life (and remember, FDR and Kennedy fooled around too) he was an excellent president, the best in my lifetime up until now (I have high hopes that Obama will surpass him).

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Gothanonymous Reader's picture

Unstoppable In 2016?

Hillary will be 69 years old. How'd that age thing work out for McCain? No amount of time in the Senate or in the administration will ever get her the nomination or the Presidency.

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sidnora's picture

It wouldn't be impossible

though I think the comment you're responding to has the strategy all wrong. But it could happen if Obama has a successful first term and replaces Biden with HRC on his 2012 ticket.

I was sure (and wrong, so wrong!) that sometime before 2006, Bush would replace Cheney with another VP who'd instantly be seen as the heir apparent. I'm still not sure why that didn't happen, though it may be that Cheney's grip on power was so tight that he wasn't going to give it up for anything, not even the future of his party.

But Obama has a similar starting point without the same constraints. It's clear to all that Biden is no longer considered a potential presidential nominee (he'd be 73 in 2016, even older than McCain was), and it's doubtful that anyone is going to think that he's running the White House from behind a curtain, Cheney-style. It's not that much of a stretch to imagine him stepping aside in 2012 to make a place for the person who's seen as having the best chance to succeed Obama.

Whether that person turns out to be Clinton remains to be seen. She would be getting up there as far as age is concerned by 2016, but not as old as McCain was. It's impossible to know now how she'll be viewed in four or eight years. And time has a funny habit of moving on; the historical likelihood is that other contenders, as yet unknown or unconsidered, will emerge. Did you ever imagine in 2004 that Obama would be the nominee?

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