CQ Politics, the blog of the Congressional Quarterly, cites republican dysfunction and the larger environment, hostile as it is to the party of George Bush, in upgrading the NY-13 race from No Clear Favorite to Democrat Favored.

This big rating jump means there is still enough of a Republican base in New York City’s sole GOP-held House district to enable the party to bounce back if it can find a new candidate to rally around — but that the Democrats now look increasingly likely to take a seat that looked like a long shot when the campaign year began.

Already reeling from the political demise of one-time rising star Fossella, the GOP effort fell into chaos when Frank Powers — the former Wall Street executive who party officials had tapped to run in Fossella’s stead — died suddenly of a heart attack on June 22. Republican officials from the New York City boroughs of Staten Island, which makes up three-quarters of the district’s population, and Brooklyn, which makes up the rest, have thus far failed to agree on their next fill-in candidate.

I suspect that that's somewhat prematurely optimistic, because the GOP will agree on a candidate at some point. But there's probably never been a better year to free the district from its unnatural representation by the same people who twice nominated George Bush. Of course, the Democratic primary in that district now becomes even more important. And on that note, I'd merely mention that flag-burning amendments to the Constitution are wrong, really wrong, and more wrong.