Search
The New York GOP is dying
A serious question: is there even going to be a republican party in this state, in the sense of an organization with meaningful ability to influence public policy, after the November elections?
The signs at this moment aren't all that promising. The not-so-casual observer can isolate three flashing signs of decline.
Fragmented, low-profile leadership: The top-ranking republican in this state today is Senate Majority Leader Dean Skelos. Skelos has virtually no statewide profile and isn't really doing much to acquire one, choosing to act very much like the leader merely of Long Island republicans, and not as the titular head of his party for the entire state. The rest of the leadership roster is similarly desiccated; Rudy Giuliani, the best-known New York leader of that party, went from Presidential front-runner to also-ran in a matter of weeks, former governor George Pataki has vanished, former Senator Al D'Amato is busy lobbying, and former Senate Majority Leader Joe Bruno is probably negotiating with the Feds right now over those pesky indictments. Henry Kissinger, meanwhile, has opted out of anything having to do with state politics for a very long time.
As to the next generation of leadership, if it's out there, it's difficult to detect. This stems in part from a systemic feature of our electoral system, whereby New Yorkers stick with incumbent legislators for decades (a problem that similarly affects the black political leadership, in ways that offer parallels to the republican challenges). Republicans, by choking off avenues of advancement for new stars - cf. Trunzo, Caesar, or Maltese, Serph - have disincented their young guns from seeking out the path of public service.
A lack of infrastructure:
Democrats and Progressives have spent the last decade or so building infrastructure, and most of that work has been bottom-up. We have dozens of blogs that directly drive traditional media coverage, the best GOTV operation in the state provided by the WFP (which also provides a useful incentive for Democrats to act Progressively), several state-wide and local email lists that reach activists, bloggers, office-holders and volunteers at a moment's notice, kick-ass commercial firms like Global Strategy Group and Knickerbocker SKD, one of the best ad-makers in the country in Jimmy Siegel, and so on and so forth.
The republicans have nothing to compare to this huge, complex and largely self-directed machine.
An impending electoral meltdown:
It's entirely possible that New Yorkers are going to wake up on November 5th represented by twenty-six Democratic Congressmen and with a six-seat (or larger) Democratic Senate majority. The messaging environment in the Congressional races is driven largely by national issues, of course, but consider some of the signs pointing to a party in disarray: In Staten Island, republicans are desperately trying to get disgraced NY-13 incumbent to throw his hat in the ring, despite the fact that he's probably going to spend a few days in jail before the election. Republicans have held that seat for thirty years. Meanwhile, yesterday's Siena poll confirmed that the Senate republican offense has collapsed, and that their defense is tottering. The Democratic share of the vote in the 2006 Senate elections was already higher than that of Joe Bruno's embattled minions. Ina year characterized by a pronounced enthusiasm gap between the two parties, that's probably not going to change for the better for the GOP.
Republicans had better start thinking about what to do next, because they're about to get hit by a truck.
Infrastructure or Infrafracture?
Your interpretation of the NYS Democratic party and Progressive infrastructure is fascinating. I guess it depends where you are in the muddle. Is this year “a year characterized by a pronounced enthusiasm gap between the two parties,” (Democrat and Republican) or is it a year characterized more by a pronounced gap within the Democratic party spurred by a few. Weren’t you a part of this blog network you describe who actively tried to take out one of the State’s very own progressive Democratic leaders Sheldon Silver? Isn’t it you who wrote here, (I think it was on the very night of Obama’s glorious unifying speech at Invesco Field), that Silver’s horrible and ought to be replaced. You were probably typing away at the exact same time progressive advocates and some of those great WFP operatives you speak of were fast at work for Silver. So is the whole infrastructure a “self-directed machine” everyone would want to emulate? Or is it a bit of a messy fractured house with Senate Democrat operatives like yourself losing focus from taking over the Senate (for months on end) to instead try to dictate who runs the Assembly.
Whatever, Carl.
Care to list any examples of how Shelly is trying to help his own party take control of the entire state government and thereby actually pass all those Progressive bills that always die in the Senate? Those bills his blogmonkeys always try to take credit for though they never make it into law?
Take your time, tool.
Examples Asked For
I’m not Carl and don’t know who they are. But I’d call me that too for coming on your site to challenge you as I did. Thank you for the reply. I’ll give you my answer as I see it on how he’s helped Democrats. I’ll start with what sticks out most in my mind, his deference and support of any Democrat in the governor’s office. He stood by Spitzer throughout troopergate, the driver license diabolical and even the prostitution scandal to his own detriment. He was never a voice of doubt or misgiving. On the one issue he challenged his Democratic Governor on, Tom DiNapoli, I think everyone’s come to realize the guy who Newsday dubbed “Mr. Clean” decades ago was a good pick after the Hevesi scandal and in the end he’s working well with Paterson which is crucial in this economic crisis and the crisis in government upon which Paterson took the helm. No one could have seen all this coming. I suppose ‘congestion pricing’ could be seen as a buck to Spitzer but there clearly wasn’t a will in his conference to pass it, so to his detriment in his LES district he did what the Democratic conference wanted. He obviously defers to Paterson as well, you don’t see him leading an override to some of the incredible vetoes taking place lately on issues of reform and transparency, not like how we saw Bruno override Pataki. When it comes to the Senate he moved quick, again to the detriment of his LES district, to lift the ‘commuter tax’ to try and help them win a suburban seat in a special election. After spending millions on Aubertine, including his first failed run for Assembly, the guy from the LES didn’t abandon the Democratic farmer in the North Country, he obviously believed in him and stayed with him and helped him run again until he finally won. I imagine it took years and years of hard work and a tremendous investment of people, time and money. When Darrel left him, he didn’t try to woo him with offers of Chairmanships or anything, not like how shockingly Paterson tried to get him to leave his new Senate post so soon after winning. I think Darrel would say to the contrary Silver quickly provided the history and materials needed to put together a seamless run for Senate framed on the same style race it took years to hone. I don’t know what your measuring stick is, if it’s simply one thing, handing over his Democratic conference’s campaign committee money and bodies to the Senate Dems I ask you does the DCCC and DSCC do that? I didn’t think the respective committees worked that way or that Malcom wants him in his hair. The only thing he probably wants, and what he has, is a fair amount of seasoned staff that came out of Silver's shop now working for Senate Dems. On the recent Presidential primary he did the right thing to stand by his own Democratic State Senator and he did the right thing by endorsing Obama as soon as she stepped aside. I don’t see a bad Democrat, I just don’t and if that makes me a tool or troll so be it. But given the recent LES primary election results I don’t think I’m alone. His progressive stance on death penalty, Rockefeller Drug Law reform, minimum wage, marriage equality, gender identity, millionaire tax, you name it, has been consistent throughout the Pataki years and through today. It is what earned him WFP and advocate support. As for some of these measures making it into law Malcom's recent comments suggest he may not want to move so fast on them with his new Majority conference, aka he may need Silver to not to be so consistant in the new year, again to Silver's detriment.
I understand you have other measures and we may just never agree on this guy, but I just can’t figure if you speak for the DSCC because I haven’t seen Doug Forand or Malcom saying this at all. I see some open hostility on some blogs and MSM, but other than that Silver appears beloved by many more who maybe have a broader measure on what is ‘good’ and a tighter measure of what is ‘bad’. Yes, if you have a tighter measure on what is good and a broader measure on what is bad he would disappoint as would anyone caught in that net. Is there always room for improvement, yes there is, I am not a knucklehead. If you do read this, before you rip on me, just know I mean no maliciousness, it’s just how I see this.
Most of that is actually false, Carl.
Le's start with your basic premise, that Silver wants to be helpful. By any metric that can actually be measured, he's doing nothing; not a dime in support, in distinct contrast to the governor, not a single body from DACC, to the best of my knowledge.
The DiNapoli fiasco was as naked a power play as anyone has ever seen in this state. That was Silver, elected with a few thousand votes, showing the governor, elected with 69% of the statewide vote, that his mandate didn't matter. Is DiNapoli doing a reasonably decent job? Sure. But we'll never know if Martha Stark, who coincidentally would have been the first openly gay statewide official, wouldn't have done a better job.
You say: "When it comes to the Senate he moved quick, again to the detriment of his LES district, to lift the ‘commuter tax’ to try and help them win a suburban seat in a special election."
...which is interesting, because Silver just came out with a plan to reinstate it. Is that helpful in our battlegrounds? Not at all. Also, the original repeal of the commuter tax came in 1999, not 2007or 2008, when there were special elections. Get your facts straight.
You say: I think Darrel would say to the contrary Silver quickly provided the history and materials needed to put together a seamless run for Senate framed on the same style race it took years to hone. I don’t know what your measuring stick is, if it’s simply one thing, handing over his Democratic conference’s campaign committee money and bodies to the Senate Dems I ask you does the DCCC and DSCC do that?
I'm unaware of any assistance offered either by the Speaker or DACC to the Aubertine race, whether financial, logistical, or with regard to personnel.
Finally, I just can’t figure if you speak for the DSCC because I haven’t seen Doug Forand or Malcom saying this at all.
As we've pointed out on multiple occasions to the Silver trolls who started popping up around March, when it became clear his primary was going to be real, no, we do not speak for the DSCC. That's also clearly to be deduced from the disclaimer on this very page. However, our editorial line has been, for years, that the Albany status quo needs to change. It's unclear to me why, other than some off-the-cuff intimidation, it should surprise anyone that this line hasn't changed, or that a posture we have maintained for years should now accrue to DSCC.
And finally, I'm somewhat amused that in a post about the GOP meltdown some Silver apologist pops up and starts whining about poor Shelly. Not that this illustrates the point of where his followers' priorities lie or anything like that, of course.
Check Your Facts Consultant
If you want to represent a modicum of fact, you are the one who needs to get it straight. Yes the original repeal came in 1999, that was SD-38 or were you still in highschool? The Senate special election took place May 25, 1999 and the Democratic candidate who’s now dead actually beat the Republican (Morahan) D to R so don’t tell me the race didn’t happen I walked an ED. Do you want me to give you the web address to the state BOE so you can look up the official results? I don’t need to because the entire experience is seared in my mind. Senate Dems almost took that seat (which by the way should be in Democratic hands by now). Maybe it’s not because there’s too many people like you around the NY DSCC who get off track trying to take out the Democratic Speaker of the Assembly rather than focusing on fighting Republicans, or maybe it’s because you just have a panache for revisionist history. The kind that always seems to makes Silver look bad no matter what he does.
At least you admit your are unaware of the assistance to Darrel, that confirms for me you’re not that high up the food chain but rather drawing your conclusions from down in the mud.
Gloss it over anyway you want, but I’ll give you a clue. You promote yourself as consultant to the NY DSCC, they pay you, it puts food on your table, you work to unseat Silver, well they just paid to unseat Silver no matter how you window dress it. People with revisionist history issues usually have connect the dot issues as well. So I’ll paint a picture for you, it’s like a consultant for DACC deciding they want to return the favor by running an active primary challenge to Malcom because, let’s see, he won’t commit to progressive issues. Why don’t you just run your overall warfare plan by the folks who pay you and see if they want your brand of politics.
Or maybe your ultimate plan is, as you say, no status quo all around. So your grand scheme is actually provoking war between the upper and lower house Democrats so you can destabilize both. Smart, very smart. You did say you were just plain tired of nice progressive poor candidates who freak’n lose all the time. Well I guess plan A went off without a hitch, infiltrate one house. Plan B went off without a hitch, run Newell against Silver in the other house. So we’re on to Plan C then? Well Mikey maybe there’s just enough folks around in both places who happened to have walked EDs in 1999 together (before you were around) who don’t operate in the mud.
Whatever, hack.
Maybe I only count wins, tool, consider that option.
As to the rest of it, again: special pleading by assorted online thugs is not going to affect what I or others write about, one way or the other. You're not the first and probably won't be the last who gives that a go - and why not, it's free, and I don't per se object to being trashed on my own blog, while apparently, hacks like you freak out over criticism - but it's not going to happen.
You promote yourself as consultant to the NY DSCC, they pay you, it puts food on your table, you work to unseat Silver, well they just paid to unseat Silver no matter how you window dress it.
Right. Because one or two bloggers can single-handedly unseat Silver. Panic much? Coincidentally, I don't "promote" myself as a consultant; that disclaimer is up because we believe that our readers have a right to judge potential conflicts of interest.
Or maybe your ultimate plan is, as you say, no status quo all around. So your grand scheme is actually provoking war between the upper and lower house Democrats so you can destabilize both. Smart, very smart. You did say you were just plain tired of nice progressive poor candidates who freak’n lose all the time.
Of course. I am powerful enough to start a civil war in the Democratic Party. I can also reverse the tides, so don't fuck with me, or I'll flood your home.
And lastly, Carl, really: nobody but you cares about any of this stuff, or buys your baroque conspiracy theories.