As far as political calculations go, the one underlying David Yassky's bid for the Congressional seat in the 11th District is pretty straightforward. Despite the fact that the 11th is a voting rights district, due to gentrification and other factors, it contains a substantial and growing white population. The African-American primary field is crowded, with contenders representing various fragmented constituencies. There's a compelling logic that one contender, well-financed - half a million isn't anything to sneeze at – can carry the primary and then go on to win the general election. It's a bit cynical for my taste, but the nuts and bolts of politics are seldom very edifying.

The only problem is that it's not going to work.

The logic of Divide et Impera has worked in many scenarios, provided the subjects thereof were willing to be divided. In the 11th District, however, there are currently two races, one open, one very much behind the scenes. The first is the primary, the second is the race to see who is the most promising African-American contender. Should Yassky win the primary, which is possible, if unlikely in my view, he will face the winner of the second race.

The simple fact is that the Brooklyn black political machine is not going to tolerate losing this election, for a seat held by civil-rights pioneers, to a white man, no matter what his credentials are. It's tempting to dismiss this as a crude form of racial preference; however, that calculus has been opened by Yassky himself, who is obviously counting on winning the white vote.

Calculations involving the variable of race had better get the numbers right; and if the 30% or so of the District that are white go entirely for Yassky – which I also doubt – that still leaves a clear majority that will not do so in the general if there is a black candidate, which there will be. That candidate will win.

David Yassky will never represent the 11th District.

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