(N.B.: These numbers are as of today's listings, but do not necessarily reflect recent gains by Obama in the polls. State-by-state poll numbers seem to trail national numbers by about a week.)

I'm following four separate handicappers, CNN, the NY Times, Congressional Quarterly (CQ), and the Cook Political Report (Cook). The scenarios are similar, and close enough to make some predictions:

By general consensus (or near consensus), Obama will win:
Vermont
Massachusetts
Rhode Island
Connecticut
New York
Maryland
Delaware
DC
Illinois
California
Hawaii
That's 153 electoral votes.

He is heavily expected to win:
Maine
New Jersey
Washington
Oregon
That's 37 more, making the total 190.

He is also expected to win:
Pennsylvania
Wisconsin
Iowa
Minnesota
That's 48 more, for 238.

He is favored somewhat in:
Michigan
New Mexico
22 more, making it to 260.

Then there's Colorado, a swing state that Obama could very well win. Those 9 electoral votes give him 269. Even if he loses other swing states: Florida, Ohio, Virginia, Nevada, New Hampshire, he'll still get to that magic 269.

Why is 269 magic? Because 269 gives him a tie with McCain. The vote then goes to the House of Representatives, where each state gets one vote. Right now, Democrats have the majority of the House delegations from 27 states plus DC (if they even get a vote), Republicans have a majority in 21 states, and 2 states are split. In addition, New Mexico and Nevada could, with one swing district flipping, move into the Democratic category. Since the vote occurs three days after the new Congress is sworn in, these elections could be valuable.

BTW, in case of a tie, the Vice President would be chosen by the Senate. Since it's a good bet that Democrats will pick up seats, Joe Biden would win even without Lieberman's vote (and seriously, how could even Joe Lieberman think that Sarah Palin would be a better VP than Biden?).

In short, right now it looks like Colorado could be this years Florida/Ohio.