Why Hillary Clinton should drop out -– the numbers
MSNBC has just assigned the 9 remaining delegates from Texas that were still up in the air. Seven went to Obama and two to Clinton. Plus, they reassigned one Mississippi delegate from Clinton to Obama.
Their current total of pledged delegates is 1,416-1,252. With 567 pledged delegates left to choose, that means Clinton now needs:
366, or 64.6%, to pass Obama,
341, or 60.1%, to get within 50,
316, or 55.7%, to get within 100.
The odds are she won't get even 316. Here's why:
Let's say she actually gets 58% of Pennsylvania's delegates. It's unlikely, since her recent 16% seems to be fading, and also the areas where Obama is strongest are the more "Democratic" areas and will count for more delegates, but let's give it to her anyway. That's 92-66 for Clinton. New total: 1,482-1,344. And that's just the start.
Over the next two weeks, there are three races, in Guam (4), Indiana (72) and North Carolina (115). The Indiana race is currently a tossup, and Obama is leading by double digits in North Carolina. Let's split the Guam and Indiana delegates, and give Obama a small 53%-47%, or 61-54 delegate, edge in North Carolina. New total: 1,581-1,436, with 218 to go.
She now needs 131 of those 218 to get within 100 delegates -- or 60%, a higher percentage than she needs now. West Virginia and Kentucky should be Clinton territory. Let's go long, and give her 65% of the delegates, or 51 of the 79. Now we're at 1,609-1,487.
Considering that Obama should be favored in Oregon, Montana and South Dakota, with 83 delegates, let's give him a mere 44-39 edge. That makes 1,653-1,526.
Now she needs 41 of Puerto Rico's 55 delegates, or 74.5%, just to get within 100. That's not going to happen, even with her significant lead among Latinos.
A more likely scenario is that Obama gets seven to ten more delegates in Pennsylvania, three to six more in North Carolina, two to four more between West Virginia and Kentucky, and two to five more in Oregon, Montana and South Dakota. That gives him a lead going into Puerto Rico of at least 157, meaning Clinton couldn't get within 100 even if she won all of Puerto Rico's delegates.
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The short, short version: It's over.
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2008 Elections | delegates | Hillary Clinton
I support Obama, but I think "advice" to Clinton to drop out is
Submitted by Daniel Millstone on 2 April 2008 - 11:59am.
odd. I am unable to see any advantage to Senator Clinton were she to stop seeking the nomination. I also do not understand what harm there is to Senator Obama by the race continuing. We who are Obama supporters can keep helping him, but this " advice" to Senator Clinton seems out of place. Irregardless, she'll make up here own mind.
Good advice
Submitted by Dan Jacoby on 2 April 2008 - 2:04pm.
As long as Clinton is in the race, Obama has to split focus. As Senator Leahy said the other day, McCain is making a gaffe almost every day and getting away with it because Obama can't focus on beating McCain.
Also, Clinton's tactics and rhetoric are damaging to the party.
When you are President...
Submitted by Gothanonymous Reader (not verified) on 2 April 2008 - 6:24pm.
I actually think this is good for Senator Obama. When he becomes President (hopefully) he will have to fight issues on several fronts, from both the Democrats & the Republicans, from the left, center & the right. This is great on the job training. Do you think when Senator McCain & Senator Clinton go back to Congress they are ging to give up, give into whatever President Obama wants. No way. He says one of his greatest assets is making the right decisions on Day One. His campaign is running pretty smoothly, there's more than enough time to focus on McCain,once he gets the nomination. Hillary keep on going, this is just what the doctor ordered for Obama.
I disagree
Submitted by stevenman5000 on 2 April 2008 - 2:23pm.
I think Hillary should stay in the race until all votes are counted, then the DNC should have the superdelegates pledge their votes early, and whomever is ahead over that should be the accepted winner and whomever loses the projected delegate vote after that should concede. But no one should be dropping out when we still have a handful of states/regions who have yet to make a decision.
This is about the magic number
Submitted by Gothanonymous Reader (not verified) on 4 April 2008 - 11:12am.
This isn't a race to see who has one more delegate than the next person. You need 2,025 to nominate. If neither Obama or Clinton have 2,025, or stand to reasonably reach that number, neither has reason to drop out. If Barack does not have or will not have the delegates to be nominated, why should Hillary drop out? Why shouldn't she stay in until the convention and fight it out? If you had run a long, hard fought campaign, wouldn't you stay in until the game was over, until there were no seconds left on the clock?
ROCK HACKSHAW SAID THIS.
I recall Rock hackshaw saying tnis almost two months ago it was over and the fat lady was singing. Fantastic call.