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Was 2006 an opportunity squandered by New York State democrats?
That's the question posed in the New York Times' article Republicans Keep Control of the Senate in New York. I hate to say it, but I have to agree with Michael Cooper :
For Democrats who have long sought to take control of a Senate in New York that has seemed stubbornly out of reach even though the state has 5.5 million registered Democrats and only 3.1 million registered Republicans, 2006 proved to be a squandered opportunity.
Some Democrats believed that too little was done on Senate races to take advantage of a year when their party got almost all the breaks on the rest of the statewide ticket. Republicans, by contrast, worked feverishly to protect their majority. For the Republicans, it was a critical fight: since many of them had already written off the governor’s race, they concentrated on the Senate hoping to retain a power base in Albany.
Controlling even one house of the Legislature, they knew, would effectively give them veto power over much of what goes on in the state: they would have to approve all of Mr. Spitzer’s budgets, agree to his legislative proposals, and even give their approval to many important construction projects and grand plans around the state.
Given that prospect, the Democrats did relatively little to try to take the Senate. They put some of their star power behind their State Senate candidates — Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton and Mr. Spitzer stumped for Ms. Stewart-Cousins — but did little to share the wealth that poured into the campaign coffers at the top of the ticket. Republicans, by contrast, raised money at a furious clip for their Senate candidates.
[emphasis added]
I feel NY Democrats need to multi-task a bit more with their local, state-wide and national priorities.
A lot of money was raised for campaigns elsewhere. Think Ned Lamont. Think Jim Webb. I am speaking as an outside observer of the whole process but, I feel the State Senate and Assembly races were considered ... ahem ... less sexy. The fervor to get behind a Jim Webb didn't seem to be there when needed to topple a Nick Spano.
The issue is not about good intentions or desire. The issue is always money. I honestly don't understand why more money was not put up by the state party for GOTV initiatives. Why isn't there a push to make New York a true blue state, especially upstate.
You know what the state's priority should have been? Treat every high-profile Republican seat as a must-win election. Target the mofos and scare them to death.
I honestly am blown away by the amount of work and devotion progressives are still showing to the Democratic party in New York. Without state-wide grassroots organizations like Democracy for New York, New Democratic Majority, would we have upsets like John Hall's?
If Stewat-Cousins wins, she would have been the only upset in Albany. Why? Why couldn't we have picked up 3, 4, 6 seats this time around?
Please, enlighten me.
I suggest you consider that, perhaps
the Democrats did not wish control of the State Senate in this cycle. In Queens, Serph Maltese won re-election by 800 or so. Had Democrats funded that race, as well as the SI race of Matthew Titone for an open Senate Seat, they might have produced better outcomes. The decision to, in effect, give Joe Bruno a pass this year may haunt Democrats in the future, but it also will give them a reason why, on day two, everything hasn't changed.
It was strategic
I agree, I think Eliot Spitzer convinced the party to make a strategic decision to lay off the state senate this cycle. The reason being that with all the things he wants to accomplish up there, he needs a scapegoat for a while. A good guy needs some bad guys. So they let Bruno and his boys sit up in Albany for another cycle while Spitzer and co. circle the wagons, and make the changes that will improve the possibility of voting these guys out (such as overhauling the rules for when/where and who gets to gerrymander districts)
Shorter answer
"Yes, this was a wasted opportunity".
However, we did pick up an Assembly seat in Staten Island with Janele Hyer-Spencer, who is definitely going places. Other than that, 100% same-party control.
Bad Strategy
I agree that the decision not to go after the State Senate was strategic - Spitzer and, to a lesser extent, Clinton wanted nothing to surpress their victory margains and the local Democratic organizations didn't think it was worth the effort this year. (This risk avoidance also probably had more to do with Spitzer's spurning of Hevesi than any commitment to principle.)
The problem is this strategy was woefully short sighted and might have made it far more difficult for the Democrats to take over the Senate before the next reapportionment. Remember, there are now only two more elections ramaining before the lines are re-drawn. Although the Democrats should sweep the State in the 2008 Presidential race, the margain of victory and the potential coattail effect will, in all probability, not be a great as this year's - especially if Guiliani is on the ticket. In 2010, the ticket may very well be headed by a far less popular and more controversial Governor Spitzer and winning the Senate might not even be in the picture. This will really make us rue the day that we did not take the opportunity in 2006 when we had the chance.
Another thing that bit the Democrats in the ass this year was the prior failure to provide competitive races to local Reublican State Senators. If this had been done in Maltese's district, the extent to which the old boy was really vulnerable would have become very apparent and enboldened a more serious candidate to come forward this year.
Biting your own ass, while riding it...
would be the best way (in my humble opinion) to categorize the Dems' failure to capture more seats in the NYS Senate. Another way to express it might be business (or chaos) as usual; in fact, there was no opportunity - merely the illusion of one.
Spitzer had a strategy to win his race; he's been laying the foundation for several years, and his impressive victories (first in the primary, then in the general) are evidence of his forethought.
There was no such strategy - and no organization -on the part of the state Dem party. Issues, not ideology drove these election results, and it's very difficult to create a statewide "brand identification" campaign when you don't have a statewide organization capable of acheiving the necessary leverage.
Spitzer built his own organization, and did a superb job - but it simply wasn't big enough to support every race. The state Dems' followed Spiter's lead because they had no choice and because it was evident early on that it would be a landslide victory. Those races that he did support - Phil Nolan in Suffolk, and Brooke Ellison, were probably chosen due to early and strong connectivity to the Spitzer campaign; something that was clearly lacking in most other races - and even there, Nolan's win was aided by it being a three-way race .
Ellison's run was hurt by the very evident fact that if she were to win, she'd be unable to accomplish anything once she got to Albany. She was unable to articulate how she'd successfully address the issues she chose to define her campaign; all she had was her very obvious connection to Spitzer in her ads - and that wasn't enough to overcome a well-entrenched incumbent.
Ten or so years ago, when the R's still controlled judiciary races in Nassau, a Garden City Dem attorney was dragooned into running. Thinking that she's have no chance, she did no campaigning, and didn't even make up flyers or bumper stickers - and the party offered no assistance. She lost, but by only a few hundred votes. History repeats itself.
If we want Dem pickups, we can't look to establishment
You didn't expect a push for pickups to come from establishment Democrats, did you? Among the many lessons of the national election is this: if we want to pick up seats for our party, we have to do it ourselves. Left to Rahm Emanuel, he would have seen his shadow and left the House to 2 more years of winter. It's the Chris Carneys and John Halls we have to thank for our plus-30 wins.
Also - like the pre-Dean national party that gave up on a Democratic America between the coasts, I think the NYS party has given up on the idea that they can reach out to the western and northern marches of the state. Not only should we think about taking control of the State Senate, but we should start targeting upstate Assembly seats as well.
Why more Assembly seats is important: here in CT, we got smoked by Jodi Rell in the governor's race. She can have it - we won veto-proof majorities in both legislative chambers.