While most of the country thinks 2008 is THE BIG YEAR for elections, New York City knows the really, REALLY big year will be 2009. Term limits is forcing out many city council reps, and all those term limited reps are looking to mob the runs for mayor, Public Advocate, Comptroller, etc. Some may be eyeing the Congressional seats that might get freed up when Congressional reps run for the Senate seat Clinton will vacate if she wins the Presidency.

But there is another mob of candidates: those trying to replace those term limited City Council candidates.

To date I have met scattered candidates for various City Council seats, including Costa Constantinides (who is on the steering committee of the Democratic Lawyers Council working on voting rights and is running in Astoria, Queens...with the name to match the district) and Steve Behar (running in district 19 in Queens).

But to date I have yet to have the chance to review the whole field running for a seat.

Well, from the Brooklyn Papers, I get a glimpse of the two races closest to me: the race to replace my Councilman David Yassky, and the race to replace the charming advocate for developers Bill DeBlasio.

So far three candidates are running to replace David Yassky in the 33rd council district. You can see it as the District Leader vs. the Yassky candidate vs. the machine candidate.

Jo Anne Simon, is the female Democratic District Leader in the 52nd Assembly district. I know her primarily from the Independent Neighborhood Democrat club where I am on the board. She has been teamed up with male District Leader Alan Fleishman as the main district leaders to stand up to the boss of the Democratic Party in Brooklyn, Vito Lopez. This is generally considered a big plus in this district where voters tend to greatly dislike Vito Lopez because of his links to cronyism and alleged corruption, his endorsement of Republican Al D'Amato over local resident Chuck Schumer, his apparent sellout to devloper Bruce Ratner, and his endorsement of the unqualified and homophobic Noach Dear for a judicial polsition (Dear had never even practiced law). Alan Fleishman and Jo Anne Simon have been among the only Brooklyn district leaders to routinely oppose Vito Lopez. Jo Anne Simon considers herself a reform Democrat, has been working hard for Hillary Clinton's campaign, and has worked hard for people with disabilities. The Brooklyn Papers seem to favor her because she was the only candidate for this race to be included in their list of the top 80 people and things to watch in Brooklyn in 2008. So far she has raised the most money for this race. She has ties to the most active Democratic clubs in the district and, barring the entry of anyone else, is likely to get endorsements from both the Independent Neighborhood Democrats and Central Brooklyn Independent Democrats (just my prediction here) and might get the support of other reform clubs. Her buzzwords are likely to be experience (she has the most of the three running to date) and reform.

In the opposite corner from Jo Anne would be Stephen Levin. As the Chief of Staff for Vito Lopez, Mr. Levin certainly is the anti-reform candidate and would likely be unpopular in much of the district including the top voter turnout areas. He hasn't even started raising money yet, which means this Vito Lopez may have been caught slightly unprepared here, but wants to try a power play for this district. Still, Vito Lopez is very good at attracting tons and tons of developer money...no strings attached, I am sure... Levin is the youngest and most inexperienced of the three declared candidates for the 33rd, but he will get the full backing of the Vito Lopez machine which means money and GOTV efforts on primary day. I predict the buzzwords for Levin will be "affordable housing" (which in his case doesn't mean anything but support for developers who claim they will build affordable housing but affordable for who?) and "change." The latter will be the counter to the experience of the other two candidates. I predict Levin will focus on criticism of Yassky to get at Thies, and a claim that Simon is anti-development and anti-affordable housing, neither of which are true.

The third candidate is also young but has more experience than Levin. Evan Thies is on Community Board 1 and is the former chief of staff to Councilman David Yassky, so could claim the most relavent experience in the race and is likely to get Yassky's endorsement. Yassky was very popular in this district, but parts of the district may still be angry after the difficult NY-11 Congressional race where Yassky was seen as stepping on some toes. Still, much of the distict was happy with Yassky and might see Thies as the natural heir. He has raised less than Jo Anne Simon, but more than the zero raised by Levin. Thies will emphasize his connection with Yassky and will probably focus on some of the more glaring problems with Atlantic Yards without necessarily addressing fundamental issues.

This race will, as with much in Brooklyn, focus on who says what about development, who gets the NY Times endorsement, and who has what ties to the machine. My experience has been that Vito Lopez's name is a big negative in Park Slope and Brooklyn Heights, to major chunks of the district, and so this could work against Levin. This district went AGAINST the NY Times endorsement in the Surrogate Judge race last year to vote against Lopez's candidate. I found the most common question I was asked when people discussed that race was "who was Vito's candidate?" and they voted AGAINST his choice. That will be a factor.

That said, the NY Times endorsement will be a huge factor in the race since this is a NY Times reading district. But it is also a district that has grown to dislike the Bruce Ratner overdevelopment schemes that this city is plagued with, yet the NY Times tends to like overdevelopment. All candidates will talk about affordable housing. There is a real need for affordable housing, yet this has also become a code word for "I support Ratner." Ratner supporters have latched onto that term as their excuse for supporting Ratner even though Ratner has no record of creating affordable housing.

The three current candidates should all be good at raising money, so money may be a more limited factor than in most city council races. Remember that Yassky, when he first ran, won despite having less money than his opponent. The NY Times endorsement may be worth more in this district than mere cash, and mere cash may not be able to overcome the taint of a Vito Lopez connection (it didn't help Shawdya Simpson despite a NY Times endorsement).

The dynamics of the 33rd race will almost certainly change. This does not seem like a full field of candidates. There may be a minority candidate entering and I know there are some people who are not satisfied with any of the current three on development. Some have told me they want to see a bolder anti-Ratner candidate and don't think any of the current three will suffice. So that may bring in a fifth candidate.

The other race that the Brooklyn Papers covers is the 39th City Council race. Five candidates have declared here, though I have heard a rumor that it really will be six in the end. Now here I have to lay out a disclaimer: I know a good number of these candidates...and generally like them. I also already have a horse in the race who is both a friend and a political ally, so take whatever I say with this in mind.

Three of the candidates were featured in the Brooklyn Paper's top 80 things to watch in 2008. The candidate they ranked highest of those three was also my friend and horse in the race, Josh Skaller.

Josh Skaller is director of information technology and systems at Globalworks, a field director with Democracy for New York City, and current president of the Central Brooklyn Independent Democrats (CBID). He thus comes with an existing grassroots backing. He also is one of only two candidates in the race who already has raised some money. Josh is a very smart and nice guy. I have seen him deal with difficult situations in the CBID civil war of about a year ago. He was one of the few people who was respected and liked by both warring factions. His strengths are his existing grassroots connections, his diplomacy and his widely recognized integrity. Very, very few people in Brooklyn politics can match Josh for integrity. He will be portrayed as inexperienced by his opponents, but this can also be billed as a plus: people sometimes like outsiders they can trust. Josh's main emphases seem to be education and sustainability within an urban environment. He also is among the strongest opponents of Ratner-style development and I guarantee that he will be completely free of developer money. Integrity, community, and education are the themes you will hear from Josh.

The Brooklyn Papers ranked Craig Hammerman next in line as someone to watch in this race. He is district manager of Community Board 6 and ran for City Council once before, in 2001. He came in last in a field of six that time. He also hasn't filed any fundraising numbers. I have met him at least once and found him quite nice and likeable. He had a tough time on Community Board 6 balancing the pro- and anti-Ratner interests. In general CB6 was anti-Ratner and was punished by Marty Markowitz for this. Craig had kept a moderate stance throughout and so survived Marty's purge. Some feel this makes him weak on this issue, but his role in CB6 was not to push his own opinion, so I believe he has a shot at stating his own position clearer than it may have been from his role on CB6. He has competition for CB6 support because there are two other CB6 candidates.

Brad Lander came in third for this race in the list of top 80 people to watch. He is also the other candidate, other than Josh, who already has fundraising numbers, and he comes in first in this. He is Director of Pratt Center for Community Development, was head the Fifth Avenue Committe, and is currently a member of Community Board 6.

The last two running are people I know from the Independent Neighborhood Democrats. I have to say that if IND and CBID split their endorsements, my wife and I might be stuck and one of us might have to resign from the board of the club we are on. But we'll see how that goes. It is interesting that the reform clubs are each running people.

Bob Zuckerman is Executive director of the Gowanus Canal Community Development Corporation and the Gowanus Canal Conservancy. I am told there is some dispute among Gowanus Canal preservation groups and Bob's group is seen by some as the less environmentally sensitive, more pro-development one. I cannot vouch for this. It is my impression that the Gowanus Canal Conservancy is pretty good, but I get this from Gowanus Canal Conservancy members. I have avoided being in the middle of that fight. Zuckerman also was a member of CB6, like Hammerman and Lander. He also was nominated to be the next president of the Independent Neighborhood Democrats. He was a past president of the Stonewall Democratic Club and is with Lambda Independent Democrats. Thus he is likely to get strong support from the GLBT community.

Gary Reilly is a member of Carroll Gardens Neighborhood Association. He will try to capitalize on the fact that he is the only candidate who isn't from Park Slope, so he will try to position himself as the candidate for the rest of the district.

CB6 has three candidates running, CBID has one, the current president of CBID, and IND has two, one of whom will likely be the next president of IND. This looks to be, at least on the surface, as an entirely reform field. I know some who question the reform and/or progressive credentials of some of the candidates, but I do want to say that all 5 candidates are good folk. I have my horse in the race but I respect all of them so far. From what I hear there may well be one or two more candidates. The machine and the developers certainly won't ignore this race. So the question is, are they backing one of the currrent candidates (in which case look at that candidate's claim of being reform with a huge grain of salt) or will they throw their own candidate in the mix. I hear rumors of machine/developer ties with one or two of the current candidates, but I also hear of the possibility of a machine entrant in the wings.

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