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Frank Barbaro to Endorse Steve Harrison for Congress
So I was getting some insider rumors that Frank Barbaro, the gentleman who ran against Bush Lap Dog Vito Fossella in 2004, was endorsing Steve Harrison, who ran in 2006 and is running again in 2008. Given that Dominic Recchia, who pretty much kept out of the fight to defeat Fossella in 2004 and 2006, is looking to challenge Harrison in the Democratic primary, this is potentially important news. But I was going to hold off until the actual press conference on the Staten Island side of the Ferry at 6:00 PM this Friday.
Seems the Staten Island Advance went public with the story prematurely [Note: the SI Advance has this in their blog] so the rumor seems public now: Frank Barbaro is endorsing Steve Harrison for Congress in the NY-13 race against Iraq War fan, Social Security Flip Flopper and opponant of Port Security Congressman Vito Fossella.
More on that Friday, I assume.
Don't be so enthused about the power of Frank's endorsement
In 2004, he backed Kucinich
So?
Who knows...maybe Kucinich surged in the district because of it...we'd never know.
An endorsement of Kucinich in some ways was not a bad move since it was a solid position against the Iraq War...a position that has proven correct. I never was enamored of Kucinich, but the fact he has been one of the most consistent voices against a war that was about as stupid, immoral and illegal as you can get means endorsing him was a reasonable statement when facing someone who so solidly supported Bush's Quagmire.
Point is, those who have been fighting against Fossella ALL ALONG are teaming up. Of course Recchia's people will minimize the endorsement...it's all they can do. But support within the district is as important as ability to raise money from outside the district. Had Recchia been able to get the Barbaro endorsement it would have been a sign that his outsider status was not so important. As it is, though, he still has to battle against that outsider image. His only weapon is money. Didn't work for David Yassky's run for Congress where more thab $1 million couldn't counter the perception (right or wrong) that he was an outsider. Insider endorsements would help. The fact that Barbaro is opting for Harrison, particularly given the rumors (unsubstatiated as far as I am aware) about Recchia being less than a loyal supporter of Barbaro in 2004 and certainly doing little in 2004 or 2006 to unseat Fossella, looks bad for Recchia. Is it a fatal blow? Of course not. But it is one piece of the game that Recchia needed to counter the carpetbagger image people have of him.
So Barbaro endorsed Kucinich. Better than Vito Lopez endorsing Al D'Amato. Some would say better than those who endorsed a Green, Mattera, for Brooklyn BP. To me, endorsement of someone who lost is not a black mark as long as there was a good reason for that endorsement. I see a good reason (though I did not go that way) for endorsing Kucinich, and I saw a good reason for endorsing Mattera against Angry Clown Markowitz. Endorsements like that of D'Amato, on the other hand, seem unjustified given how much better Chuck Schumer is than D'Amato. It isn't win or lose...it's the reason behind the endorsement that matters to me.
And What Does That Prove?
So what if Frank Barbaro supported Kucinich in the primary. He actively supported Kerry in the general election and, since I worked on the Barbaro campaign, I know that we were giving out both signs to all who asked. When we worked the 3rd Avenue Street Festival, we had both Kerry and Barbaro signs, literature and other items at the booth. What the heck does it matter who Barbaro supported in a primary? Many supported Dean and the others running and then became Kerry supporters when he won the primaries.
This endorsement is fantastic for Steve. You would be surprised at how many people still hold Frank in the highest regard (people both in Brooklyn and Staten Island)and will pay more attention to his endorsement than to the one Vito Lopez gives Dominic Recchia
Endorsements
So Barbaro endorsed Kucinich in '04, and Kucinich lost. Big deal. Kucinich would have lost if Bill Clinton and Al Gore had both endorsed him.
Barbaro's endorsement of Harrison should go a long way, however, in the Democratic primary -- provided that Barbaro puts his resources behind his endorsement. Will Harrison have access to Barbaro's contributors (and Barbaro's time to make phone calls)? That alone could knock Recchia out of serious contention, if Harrison can raise a few hundred thousand dollars through Barbaro's help.
In short, endorsing Harrison vs. endorsing Kucinich = apples and oranges.
"if"
"if" is a big word, "if" harrison can raise a few hundred thousand? highly unlikely. take a look at his recent filing. not a lot of new donors uncovered. same family and friends. the first half of the year should have been most productive for him. he could have used the rhetoric of his "great" showing against fossella, he didn't. if you look at the results for each year since 2000, vito is losing a steady 2-3 points each cycle, facing the same underfunded opponent scenarios. so if harrison is the nominee this year, he will get 46-47 and vito will still win.
Wow
This is BIG for Harrison. This will play well for Harrison with Brooklyn Democrats and Liberals on SI. It will also even out the future Savino endorsement of Recchia, if anything Barbaro carries more weight with unions then newcomer Savino. To add insult to injury where Frank represented is where Dom comes from! I guess early Merry Xmas to Mr. Harrison.
"newcomer"
first off, the current players in labor were children when barbaro was influential in labor. second, savino was and is a peer of most of most of the leaders of the unions today. she was a vice president of one of the largest public sector unions in nyc. so her credentials with labor are far greater than barbaro's. but even if that were not true, i would not put much weight behind the barbaro endorsement, if it were happening. and let's not forget, recchia has his own record with unions, and from what i understand, they are pretty good. harrison has no relationship, at all.
all I said...
...is a Barbaro has never delievered much in the way of votes. The "progressive" types are mostly with harrison already, and his old club types (and, whatever his start, Barbaro ended up his time in the Assembly as a Howie-Golden backing regular who got a slot on Supreme Court for services rendered)are with Recchia. Most of the old ladies who remmeber him talking Yiddish to them are dead or in Florida, and those who love him for being Italian will support the Italian.
Contributor's? Did Frank even raise as much as Harrison?
Kucinich got crushed in Barbaro's turf, as did Jesse Jackson, who Frank also supported.
The endorsement is a nice trophy to display, but it comes with no troops Harrison doesn't already have. Old Barbaro hands like Carmine Santamaria, who carry some juice in the community, will be with Recchia.
Interestingly...
As far as I can tell Recchia never delivered any votes in the district either, at least not for Barbaro in 2004 or Harrison in 2006. That's one reason I started so skeptical of him. He never showed he had any pull in the past. Was he holding back, in which case I would consider him a louse for refusing to do his part, or did he try hard and fail to deliver?
I can't speak for troops on the ground. I know many Barbaro people were at the forefront of Harrison's 2006 campaign but I don't know if that is a guarantee of their favoring Harrison over Recchia this time. The Barbaro endorsement will, at least, cement those people's support.
I believe Barbaro had considerably more money than Harrison and didn't do quite as well. Which suggests that had Harrison had the same amount as Barbaro had, Fossella might have been toppled.
And one question no one has yet answered for me: if Recchia is such a great fundraiser, why didn't he throw that fundraising muscle behind Harrison in 2006 or Barbaro in 2004? Again, did he choose not to deliver or did he try hard and fail to deliver? Either way it is discouraging. And people seem to avoid the question.
fundraising
as far as i know, harrison never asked anyone to help him raise money. first rule in fundraising, learn to make the hard ask. no one volunteers to bundle on their own. mole,if you ever run for office you will find these things out.
And...
What about in 2004 for Barbaro? There are several bottom lines here:
1.) Harrison didn't raise much money last time. But he also got little help. Both are negatives, one for Harrison and one for the rest of us Dems.
2.) Harrison did better than any Dem has done for 30 years running for that seat DESPITE the money issue. That is a HUGE positive.
3.) Recchia has no record of doing ANYTHING within the bulk of the district (including for Barbaro OR Harrison) and seems to be trying to buy his way in like David Yassky tried doing in NY-11. Yassky learned that it takes more than money to win in a district you have only tenuous connections to. Even if Recchia wins the primary, I am sure he will learn in the general how hard it is to buy your way into a district.
No one has presented me with any evidence that voters in the district will have any interest in Recchia in the general election. My prediction is if Recchia wins the nomination he will spend a lot more money to do about the same or slighly worse than Harrison did in 2006. By comparison, if Harrison wins I predict he will be able to BUILD on what he started in 2006, something that has won us districts around the country from Dave Loebsack in Iowa to Nick Lampson in Texas and many other districts around the nation. Many were were accused of being unable to raise money and failing too often to be viable...now they are Congressmen. If I want to learn from the past I would say people trying to buy their way into a district do poorly while those who are accused of running too many times with a poor ability to raise money turn out in the long run to be able to win in tough districts. Loebsack and Lamspon fit the pattern of Harrison, and won after several tries. Recchia fits the pattern of Yassky, who didn't win despite raising a record amount of money.
Barbaro's fundraising helping Harrison
According to his FEC filings, Barbaro raised just a hair under $400K for his 2004 race. My guess is, Harrison didn't get much overlap from that, and if Barbaro has kept in touch with those donors, there's a lot of money available for Harrison.
We should also note that Harrison has raised more by the end of October than he raised by July of 2006 -- in other words, he's nine months ahead of the last cycle. Granted, his fundraising last time was anemic ($130K), but when you consider that he raised over 3/4 of that in the last three months he has a real chance to make a difference this time.
you all keep igonoring the fact
that vito has steadily lost 2-3 points each election in spite of who is running. based on that the dem will get 47% this time. the only way to get from 47-51 is to spend a lot of money, on mail, mail, mail, mail and tv. a field operation would help too, a real one, paid canvassers. this all takes money. earned media is not the answer, clubs are nice, but they really don't deliver elections.
Money is of course important
But so is name recognition. Buying your way into the district will NOT bring you from 47 to 51. Particularly if you have barely paid attention to the district before. It just doesn't work.
I certainly don't want to discount the importance of money in an election. But since that is ALL anyone can give me as a reason to support Recchia, a THEORETICAL for now ability to raise gobs of money, and there is NO other indication he is viable, I stick with the guy who has a record in the district. I honestly think that is the way to go and if WE can help raise the cash for Harrison, we can win the district. If we start from scratch with someone the district has no clue about, how can we possibly do even as well as Barbaro?
To Mole: This is what Recchia has accomplished in his district:
I live in Recchia's district & these are his accomplishments: #1- Promoting overdevelopemnt, #2 Non- Creation Affordable Housing, #3 Not creating jobs in Coney Island, #4 Getting the 2006 Knucklehead Award from the Daily News, #5 Disregard for Cleaniness in Coney Island/Brighton Beach #6 Giving himself a $12,500 raise, #7 Wanting to create an amphitheater in the only park on the west side of Coney Island ( Asser Levy Park). And I can assure you there will be more to come in 2008. These are just some of the great accomplishment of Mr. Recchia.