Jimmy Dahroug Will Win
So today I get several emails and instant messages having to do with the number one State Senate race we can win...the one Jimmy Dahroug almost won in 2006. This is our top priority race and we shouldn't fuck it up. So this diary is hopefully going to get everyone back on the right track.
First off, let me indicate that Jimmy Dahroug has a new website. Here it is:
http://www.jimmyforsenate.com/
Second, it seems that someone over at the NY Times has done a really sucky job of doing his research because he discusses this race without even mentioning Jimmy Dahroug. Well, if the NY Times can't figure out who's actually running in the top State Senate race in NY State it shows a sharp decline in the quality of their reporting. To the NY Times: Get your damned act together. Seriously. Don't be so sloppy. It just makes you look bad.
Now let me remind people of what this race is all about. Here is a repeat post of my first impressions of meeting Jimmy Dahroug at a DFNYC fundraiser with Jim Dean. Since then I have had more dealings with Jimmy and all I can say is I am more convinced than ever that if we don't elect Jimmy Dahroug to the State Senate in 2008 we will fail to take the State Senate. Is that what Shelly Silver and Eliot Spitzer want? I don't think so unless Joe Bruno is suddenly advising them. So for those who are SERIOUS about taking the State Senate, here is a reprise of my first meeting with Jimmy Dahroug:
It is rare that I make it to political events in Manhattan, but so many people were urging me to meet Jimmy Dahroug, candidate for State Senate in Suffolk County, last night at a Manhattan fundraiser with Jim Dean of Democracy for America as a special guest. I am glad I went even though it meant being late for my son's bedtime, an event I don't like missing. In the end I barely met Jim Dean and only briefly got to talk with Jimmy Dahroug, but did get to hear both speak and got to meet several other candidates running for City Council in 2009: Josh Skaller (DFNYC organizer and president of Central Brooklyn Independent Democrats, running for Bill DeBlasio's seat...what, Josh, no website yet?), Costa Constantinides (on the steering committee of the Democratic Lawyers Council working on voting rights and running in Astoria...and with the name to match the district) and Steve Behar (running in district 19 in Queens). By the way...rumor has it some of you out there think Josh Skaller is mole333. Hmmm...well even though I make no secret about my identity, I will leave that rumor hanging just for the fun of it. Also present was Ken Diamondstone, who, rumor has it, may well be aiming for a rematch with Marty Connor for the State Senate. I think I may be leaving out one or two candidates I got to talk to...apologies!
Jim Dean set the two main themes of the evening. The first theme is the one that too many of our more entrenched fellow Democrats don't like hearing: Take Ownership of the Process. Jim's brother, Howard Dean (now head of the DNC) put the same idea slightly differently: YOU have the power. Howard's version is catchier, but I actually like Jim's version better. It is, in fact, more aggressive. Today's progressives aren't just asking for a slice of the pie...the are aiming to take the knife and be in charge of how that pie is cut. And, having watched politics around the country for a number of years now, I really think it is indeed time for voters and activists to take ownership of the process in a very real way and that is what Democracy for America is all about. But the point of this is not to dwell on taking a bigger share of the power. Really what taking ownership means (as any homeowner will tell you) is taking a bigger share of the RESPONSIBILITY for the process. And again, THAT is what DFA is all about. If we don't take ownership of the process, with all the responsibility that entails, then corruption and dysfunction will be the norm...as we can see in both Brooklyn (yeah...I'm talking to YOU Vito Lopez and Dominc Recchia, the hacks that are praying we do NOT take ownership of the process away from them) and Albany, possibly one of the MOST dysfunctional state government in the country.
Which brings me to Jim Dean's second theme: it's time to clean up the garbage in Albany. Eliot Spitzer's election was a step in the right direction, but Joe Bruno's do nothing State Senate stands in the way of real reform. Joe Bruno, the Republican King of Albany Dysfunction (to be fair, he has his co-King Shelly Silver, a Democrat) holds onto his ability to obstruct real governing by a mere 2 seat margin.
Two Republican State Senate seats stand between New Yorkers and a functional state government. Two Republican State Senate seats stand beteen New Yorkers and real reform of our system. Many of Eliot Spitzer's most popular programs, including better healthcare and reform of Albany, are routinely passed by the Assembly but blocked by Joe Bruno.
Two seats.
Which brings us to Jimmy Dahroug. Jimmy Dahroug in many ways fits a theme for Daily Gotham. As with another friend, Steve Harrison running against Bush Republican Vito Fossella, Jimmy Dahroug ran last time around on a shoestring budget, with no support from the main Democratic Party and running an almost exclusively grassroots campaign. And, like Steve Harrison, Jimmy came close enough to winning with so few resources that the mainstream Democrats are taking notice. In 2006 Jimmy Dahroug's race was one of the two closest State Senate races in the state...which means if we want to win those two seats that keep Joe Bruno able to block real governing of New York Jimmy's race is one of the ones we have to win. The NY-13 Congressional Seat and the SD-3 State Senate seats are likely to be two heavily targeted races in 2008, if all goes well.
People used to say (before they realized what a dumb SOB he was) that George Bush was the kind of guy they'd like to have a beer with. Never understood why they thought Bush was anything but a spoiled, snot-nosed fool, but the concept is sound. Candidates who make voters feel relaxed and comfortable are the ones most likely to win. Money sure helps, of course, but actually connecting with the voters in a personal, gut-level way is key. Well, if George Bush really was the kind of guy people thought they wanted to have a beer with, Jimmy Dahroug initially struck me as the kind of guy you could sit around and share a beer bong with. He reminded me of the better fraternity guys I used to know (while Bush reminds me of the worst frat boys you can imagine). There was a youthful, down-to-earth enthusiasm about Jimmy that was endearing. Of course unlike most fraternity guys you might share a beer bong with, Jimmy then proceeded to give a very intelligent, inciteful speech. (For the record, we DID have a beer with Jimmy afterwards...no beer bong though. And I can attest that he IS a guy you can feel comfortable with having a beer).
Jimmy Dahroug emphasized the need to clean up Albany and the fact that his race is one of the two most likely pick up chances for New York Democrats. And he emphasized the obvious conclusion from this: his race is one of the ones we MOST have to focus on. If you want a Democratic majority in the State Senate, you pretty much HAVE to help out Jimmy. There ain't no two ways about it. If Jimmy doesn't win in 2008 it is very unlikely we can win the State Senate, and Joe Bruno can keep on blocking real reform.
Building on the theme of cleaning up the garbage in Albany, Jimmy Dahroug emphasized a point we all want to hear when it comes to Albany dysfunction: Three men in a room should NOT be allowed to decide. And here is where Jimmy strikes a more reform note even than some mainstream Democrats like Shelly Silver and Vito Lopez. Jimmy thinks three men in a room should not decide the fate of NY State NO MATTER WHO THOSE THREE MEN ARE. Even if all three were Democrats, though we would see some real improvement in Albany, it would STILL be a dysfunctional system. Real reform means getting rid of three men in a room, a system unique to New York as far as I am aware and one of the main obstacles to real governing.
Jimmy told a story of one point when he was making fundraising phone calls that he talked to a Democracy for NYC member who expressed disappointment in Democrats and was very negative to Dahroug's request for support. That DFNYC member had expected more of the Democrats when they took control of Congress in 2006 and Jimmy got an earful of the guy's disappointment. This struck a chord with Jimmy who realized that the one thing he did not want to hear after we take the State Senate is a wave of disappointment from Democratic voters that they expected more. He wants to not only take the State Senate, but to deliver the goods to the voters. And, by some strange coincidence that many political hacks in both parties don't quite get, that is precisely what the voters of both parties want from their electeds: delivery of the goods.
In 2008 the progressive grassroots will be focused very hard on the State Senate races. Many more mainstream organizations are thinking along the same lines and a woman from NY NARAL voiced strong personal support of Jimmy Dahroug last night...and hinted that NARAL was very interested in the race. As with so many other near misses in 2006, Jimmy Dahroug's rematch with Joe Bruno Republican Caesar Trunzo is likely to succeed in 2008 with full support of the mainstream Democrats and organizations like NARAL. We discovered in 2006 that when the mainstream party and the grassroots unite, we win big. It looks to me like a similar coalition of grassroots progressives and mainstream moderates are poised to bring Jimmy Dahroug to victory. Joe Bruno mark my words: the end to your obstructionism is at hand and Jimmy Dahroug will be one of those who delivers your notice.
Then will come 2009...the year we hope to get a better City Council with the election of people like Josh Skaller, Costa Constantinides and Steve Behar.





Almost won?
I have no horse in this race, and Darough certainly ran hard, but ALMOST WON?
He got 44.46% and lost by 9 points. That respectable, but if Hillary got that % in some primary, you'd call it an Obama landslide. In fact, I'm pretty sure you have.
Seems to me the DSCC is under no obligation to go with a two-time loser. If the DSCC has a proven votegetter with a track record of winning races in that turf, they should encorage them.
That being said, I'm not sure a Republican with a track record of winning on the Republican line qualifies; not the best of lab conditions for testing a potential Democratic candidate.
But if they come up with someone who's proven themselves in that turf ON THE DEMOCRATIC LINE, they should probably drop Darough like a hot potato.
Flaw in your arguement
Dahroug came closer to winning in 2006 than anyone else in a State Senate race where we have a pick up shot. If we are going to pick up the two seats we need, Suffolk has to be one of them and Dahroug is the one who came closest. And this time he has money.
Sorry, but when you look at the races that are being run, more often than not it is with a candidate who has run one or two times before, at least when you look nationally at Congressional races.
As to calling anything a landslide for Obama, I believe the only things I may have called such are the states he got around 70% or higher of the vote. I think that might qualifiy. Below that and no...I don't think it would be a landslide win. In fact I am pretty sure I haven't used the word at all recently, so not sure where you are pulling that from.
Is someone else running in the Democratic Primary?
If not, then we should do away with the acrimony and support Dahroug.
Why Jimmy can win
In 2004 Jimmy came out of nowhere to get 40.5% of the vote. Standard practice is that if a challenger like this gets over 40% then the incumbent is vulnerable.
In 2006 Jimmy ran again -- but came up against an idiotic decision by the state DSCC. They chose to back David Ochoa, who contributed $1,000 to Caesar Trunzo's campaign in 2004. Jimmy won a three-way primary against not only Ochoa but also a third well-funded candidate (both Ochoa and Montano were able to "loan" their campaigns huge amounts of money), but had to empty his warchest to do so, which is why he lost the general election by nine points.
This time, Jimmy has not only seriously upped his fundraising, but also has the support of that "third person" from the 2006 primary, Ricardo Montano.
But instead of finally backing Jimmy, the state DSCC seems bent on screwing up again -- they've seduced Christopher Bodkin into switching parties (he is pissed off at the county Republicans for trying to dump him three years ago, and is apparently sick of waiting for Trunzo to retire). Bodkin may be a "maverick Republican," but that doesn't make him a Democrat and it doesn't make him a winner at this level.
If Jimmy had gotten state party support in 2006 he very probably would have won, in which case the Feb. 26 special election could have been about control of the Senate. Instead, the party "leaders" screwed up, and we have to wait until fall. Now it seems they're doing it again -- let's hope it doesn't mean another two years of Joe Bruno.
Interesting
1) the argument that a two-time loser with escalating vote totals deserves another shot, even when he couldn't win in the year of an unprecendeted Democratic landlside is a familiar one. I just heard Jack Davis make it upstate. You don't back him do you? I think he's a terrible candidate, but by your logic, he should be the nominee. Spitzer won by something like 39%, polls show either Obama or Clinton carrying the state by about seven. Isn't it advisable we start looking for candidates who can run ahead of the ticket, rather than 20 points or more behind it?
2)"Darough came closer to winning in 2006 than anyone else in a State Senate race where we have a pick up shot"
Demonstrably wrong. That would be Al Baldeo, who margin of defeat was less than one percent, not more than nine. While he surely has a more compelling case for demanding another shot than Darough or Davis, does anyone anywhere really believe he is our strongest possible candidate?
3) Totally agree with Jacoby about Ochao. We should never support any phony purported Democrat who gave money to the Republican he now seeks to run against.
Ooops, that would disqualify ....STEVE HARRISON