Post Super-Tuesday Update
I just wanted to get in this short emergency piece on the great Super-Tuesday post-election analysis, because â€œspinâ€ is exactly that: â€œspinâ€. LOL. All through the night, many of you must have heard the spinmeisters weaving their deceptive tales about who won Super Tuesday, but what is the objective reality? Where is the truth? And when do you separate truth from spin?
In yesterdayâ€™s contests Barack Obama won thirteen states; Hillary Clinton won eight. The only state still outstanding at this point is New Mexico, and Obama is slightly ahead in the count, plus he won the exit polls. That will give him fourteen when they finish counting this morning, once the trends hold up. As of today Barack Obama has won more primaries or caucuses than HRC, up to this point in the contest. It is worst if you subtract Florida and Michigan from her win column. Remember these two states were places that the candidates agreed not to contest- but Hillary violated the agreement. She went as far as having her name placed on the Michigan ballot (while he didnâ€™t); how crass and unethical. Now her people are threatening to go to court, in order to seat these delegates, which the Democratic National Committee (DNC) - in agreement with all the candidates- agreed not to count.
At this point in time, Barack Obama is ahead in terms of combined vote totals, and he is going to be slightly ahead with HRC amongst committed delegates (once you subtract the flexible super-delegates). Yes, this is all factual despite Clintonâ€™s big wins in New York and California. Still, media spinmeisters are trying to suggest that Hillary Clinton is leading and winning. So using the immortal words of Bill Clinton; I say: â€œgimme a breakâ€. This is a fairy tale if I have ever seen one LOL.
California was a wrong call for me in my pre-Super Tuesday predictions. When the final count from California comes in I expect Obama to get a good number of delegates. As I suggested in my last column, Hilary won the early vote and absentee process; this saved her in Cali. I thought New York would have been closer, although I conceded to myself that she might just blow him away upstate; it looks like she did that. He did well in NYC but I expected him to do better. He also won two of the North/ Eastern states that I singled, when he got Illinois and Connecticut. He was close in New Jersey but got no cigar there. Massachusetts was not as close as I thought, but then Hillary was always way ahead in the polls there.
On the Republican side, media talking-heads suggest that McCain has wrapped up the Republican nomination, yet both Mitt Romney and Mike Huckabee keep winning states. And there is an obvious distrust for McCain from hard core conservatives (something that goes as far back as you can even remember); so before media folks start counting out candidates, I think they should stick to the facts. At some point or the other, media folks have called all three remaining Republicans for dead; how wrong they were. This Republican race isnâ€™t over either.
So letâ€™s move on to the next seven events coming up between now and next Tuesday; let me audaciously predict that Obama will win at least five of the next seven events, with the potential to sweep all seven. These events are caucuses in Washington State, Maine and Nebraska; and also primaries in Virginia, Maryland, Washington DC and Louisiana. Maryland is Hillaryâ€™s best chance for a victory (and even there Barack is very very competitive). By this time next Wednesday, Barack Obama will be leading in both the delegate count and the vote count. He will then be on his way to the Democratic Partyâ€™s nomination. Does anyone really doubt this now?
Stay tuned-in folks. For the Clintons, Waterloo came just as I said, and the beginning of the end is here.