Families are probably less likely to flee the city than they were 10 years ago, although once classroom spending is slashed to pay for the the 25/55 pension plan and the school go into a downward spiral, that may change.

What is happening is the large baby boom echo cohort is leaving school, and the children of the smaller baby bust (Gen X) generation are in school. That's why there is capacity shortage in high school while there are fewer children in the lower grades.

Even though baby boomers had fewer children than their parents, there were enough of them to substantially increase the number of school children. In addition it was an unusually high peak, because the first half of the baby boom (the 1960s generation) postponed childbirth longer than the second half (us stagflation babies), so some of my childrens' friends have parents 5-10 years older than I am. In NYC, this was turbocharged by a generation of immigrant parents and their children. So even though the decision to cut spending just as enrollment soared sent tens of thousands of my peers and their children fleeing to the suburbs, enrollment rose.

While the population is growing, it is the double-shot of those baby boomers (some returning from the suburbs) and their children (pouring into NYC from everywhere) that is driving it up. Most of the new units are 1-2 bedrooms, and most of the 3-bedrooms are already occupied by those who bought at affordable prices (perhaps soon to return).

The question is what happens when the baby boom echo generation begins to have children and those children begin to reach school age. Will they stay in NYC, or will the city's education system once again be pushed into a nosedive that will drive they to the suburbs even if they do not want to go.

I expect the latter, with a combination of the 25/55 pension plan and disproportionate cuts in state aid to the city in the coming deep, deep, deep recession recreating the worst of the early 1990s, to the satisfaction of all the beneficiaries.