Winning the House through NY State
Every year I spend a fair amount of time trying to size up the state of the country when it comes to elections. I look for specific candidates I feel are worth pushing for (sometimes before others are pushing for them, I should note) and I try to get a feel for the overall trend in the nation. In 2006 and 2008 I felt Dems were going to win big...bigger than polls were indicating and many supposed "long shots" I endorsed as having a chance wound up winning. In 2010 I, along with most observer, knew that the tide was flowing towards the Repubs. I played it more defensive though I rightly predicted that the teabagger wave wasn't going to be quite as overwhelming as most pundits suggested. Still, 2006 and 2008 were aggressive years for me, 2010 defensive.
I am feeling this year is another good year to be aggressive. I am optimistic. I think Obama will win and we will keep the Senate. Taking the House is quite a long shot, but not impossible. Still I think it is best to try to make gains in the House (which I think we will do) in preparation for what I am hoping will be a strong Dem year in 2014.
With this in mind, I want to highlight 3 NY State races. There are more close NY State House races, but these are the three that I think are leaning Repub that we can turn to Blue with some hard work. Winning even one of these three races will help Obama when he gets re-elected. And winning all three is a possibility. I should note that one of the main sites I use to judge races is a conservative site. I figure if I know what the right wing is thinking, it helps me be realistic in our chances. All three of these races are listed as "Lean R." In 2010 I wouldn't have touched these races. But in 2006 and 2008 I would have given us a good shot at all three. This year? I think it is in between but well worth making the effort. Not that ALL of these would be Dem pick ups, so by contesting them strongly we are putting Repubs on the defensive. That is something we don't do enough of.
You can donate to any of these campaigns at the bottom of this Act Blue Site (my latest Act Blue site...on other sites I have already raised about $5000 for Dem candidates across the country).
NY-11 Mark Murphy
This has been a traditionally Republican district that has slowly trended Dem...though conservative Dem. It still leans Repub but it is a weak hold for them and the Repub incumbent has run into a few scandals. So I think we have a shot at it since Repub scandals are what made this a possible Dem district in the first place. Plus the Democrats in the Brooklyn end of this district have suddenly gotten more unified and eager to prove their worth. So there may be a push for the first time from the Brooklyn end to win this one.
NY-18 Sean Patrick Maloney
I have met Sean Patrick Maloney and liked him a few years back. He is running against right wing nut job Nan Hayworth. It leans Repub but things have been picking up. Maloney has been endorsed by Democracy for America, NYS AFL-CIO, United Auto Workers Region 9A, New York State United Teachers, and many others.
NY-19 Julian Schreibman
This one has been off my radar but we have a shot at it. NY State as a whole has been trending Dem for years (ironically upstate more than Brooklyn, which has trended more Repub!). So this race should be part of that trend.
You can donate to any of these campaigns at the bottom of this Act Blue Site.