MSNBC [1] has just assigned the 9 remaining delegates from Texas that were still up in the air. Seven went to Obama and two to Clinton. Plus, they reassigned one Mississippi delegate from Clinton to Obama.

Their current total of pledged delegates is 1,416-1,252. With 567 pledged delegates left to choose, that means Clinton now needs:

366, or 64.6%, to pass Obama,
341, or 60.1%, to get within 50,
316, or 55.7%, to get within 100.

The odds are she won't get even 316. Here's why:

Let's say she actually gets 58% of Pennsylvania's delegates. It's unlikely, since her recent 16% seems to be fading, and also the areas where Obama is strongest are the more "Democratic" areas and will count for more delegates, but let's give it to her anyway. That's 92-66 for Clinton. New total: 1,482-1,344. And that's just the start.

Over the next two weeks, there are three races, in Guam (4), Indiana (72) and North Carolina (115). The Indiana race is currently a tossup, and Obama is leading by double digits in North Carolina. Let's split the Guam and Indiana delegates, and give Obama a small 53%-47%, or 61-54 delegate, edge in North Carolina. New total: 1,581-1,436, with 218 to go.

She now needs 131 of those 218 to get within 100 delegates -- or 60%, a higher percentage than she needs now. West Virginia and Kentucky should be Clinton territory. Let's go long, and give her 65% of the delegates, or 51 of the 79. Now we're at 1,609-1,487.

Considering that Obama should be favored in Oregon, Montana and South Dakota, with 83 delegates, let's give him a mere 44-39 edge. That makes 1,653-1,526.

Now she needs 41 of Puerto Rico's 55 delegates, or 74.5%, just to get within 100. That's not going to happen, even with her significant lead among Latinos.

A more likely scenario is that Obama gets seven to ten more delegates in Pennsylvania, three to six more in North Carolina, two to four more between West Virginia and Kentucky, and two to five more in Oregon, Montana and South Dakota. That gives him a lead going into Puerto Rico of at least 157, meaning Clinton couldn't get within 100 even if she won all of Puerto Rico's delegates.

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The short, short version: It's over.

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